Tag Archives: Trends

How big is US foreign aid?

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US government foreign aid was one of the topics of the recent US Presidential debate.  Through all the politics and chatter, it always helps to go back to the facts.

The US government publishes something called the Greenbook (245 page pdf) which shows where all the US foreign aid goes, but you can get the same information on the website in a more useful and friendly way.

1. The US government gave out $38B in economic aid in 2010.  This represents about 1% of the US national budget.  There was $15B in military assistance, but will ignore that for now.

2. US foreign aid has been going up for the last 10 years.  Shown in the graph, aid was relatively flat at $15-20B (based on inflation adjusted 2010 dollars) between 1965-2000.  The current level of $38B is where it was in 1953 time frame.  For a good discussion on the trends of US foreign aid, look here.

US Foreign Aid Trends 1946-2010 - Graph3. Foreign aid goes to approximately 180 countries.  Looking at this infographic created by the State Department and USAID, it is clear that US foreign aid gets scatter to almost every country in Africa, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia.  If you want to drill-down and see what the money is used for, you can download the data here.

Foreign Assistance by Country - Map4. On the surface, it looks like the aid is somewhat evenly distributed.  Without doing a “foreign aid per capita calculation”, Africa and Asia appear to get about 1/4 of the total spend.  Latin American and Eastern Europe share less than 20% of the aid.   The Middle East trails with 9% of spend.  The non-region specific aid probably includes some SG&A overhead costs and generic assistance.

2010 US Aid by Region - Graph5, The Middle East number (9%) is understated since Afghanistan (#1 recipient) and Pakistan (#2 recipient) are counted in Asia.  Also, Egypt (#5 recipient) is counted in Africa.  Israel receives no economic aid, but instead receives $2.8B in military assistance.

Top 10 recipients of US aid - Graph

6. US foreign aid comes in many different forms.  We build schools, provide drug therapies, dig wells, and even ensure fair elections.   In the table below, you can see that US aid comes in 8 high-level buckets, with peace / security and health being the top two.

US Aid by Category - Table7. Each category can then be broken down into finer parts.  For example, the US spent $9B globally on health-related aid.  The majority of this is spent on HIV/AIDS, compared to Malaria which only gets 1/10th of the funding.

Health Related Foreign Aid - Table

8. Poverty is everywhere  In this chart below, you can see that in rural India or Pakistan, more than 70% of the people live on less than 2 dollars per day. The Economist points out here that 1 bad harvest can completely wipe these people out.

Poverty Graph

9. The US is generous in its aid, but inconsistent.  One of the key elements of building trust is consistency.  So, when I downloaded the foreign aid data on a few of our key frenemies (friend + enemy), I can see why they are a bit confused on whether the US is a friend or a foe. Download the entire data set (all countries, all economic aid, 1946-2010).

10. The US gave $4.6B in economic aid to Afghanistan in 2010.  This is more than we gave the country for 56 years from 1946-2002.  Understandably, a lot of this has history mixed up with the cold war, but it is not surprising that they might feel America is trying to force a “all-of-a-sudden” type relationship.

Foreign Aid to Afghanistan - Graph11. The US gave $1.9B in economic aid to Pakistan in 2010.  As you can see in the graph below, it looks like a yo-yo.  It went from a high in the early 1960s, then dropped 90% to almost nothing in the early 1990s.  Looks like a U shape and a U-turn in policy.

Foreign Aid to Pakistan Graph12. The US gave $1B in economic aid to Iraq in 2010.  This is a lot of money – more than most countries receive from the US in aid – but it is only 1/8 of what Iraq received 2005.  Digging deeper, it looks lie 2/3 of the “economic aid” was actually the Department of Defense helping out with “security assistance”.  Does not sound very economic to me.

Foreign Aid to Iraq Graph13. Mexico received about $622M in aid in 2010.  We all too often forget our neighbor.  US aid increased dramatically to Mexico, but in the form of more funding for narcotics control.  If you read the news, the drug / gang violence in Mexico is at an all-time high.

Foreign Aid to Mexico Graph

14. US governmental aid is just a part of the equation.  A reader wisely pointed out that the US government makes up just a small portion of the larger US overseas philanthropy. Completely agree.  Don’t have to look any further than the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Kiva.org, or a local church to see that Americans are eager to assist and invest in the developing world.  Thanks for pointing that out.

15. US private capital flows were $161B in 2010.  That is more than 4x more than what the US government sends overseas for development assistance.  Look at this report from the Hudson Institute that shows how the contributors to overseas philanthropy are changing.

Remittances - Foreign Aid

A few graphs that answer the question: How popular are half marathons?

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Philly Rock and Roll Half MarathonI ran the Philadelphia Rock and Roll half marathon last month.  Felt great to finish, but it was pretty painful at mile 11 and 12.  There were a lot of people there, and it made me wonder how popular are half marathons?   So here is what I found out at www.runningusa.org:

The world’s largest half marathon = Goteborg, Sweden.  It is held in mid-May and has 42K+ finishers.  The one in 2011 was the largest one ever.

The largest US half marathon = Zappos.com Rock and Roll in Las Vegas.  The race is at night in December and the course is naturally focused on the Las Vegas strip – MGM, Bellagio, Caesar’s Palace, Wynn, Paris etc.  Great views.

The half marathon I ran in Philadelphia was crowded too; the one from last year had 16K+ finishers.  Since it was one of the Rock and Roll races, there were bands every mile.

Largest Half Marathons TableIn 2011, there were 1.6M+ half marathon finishers.  Even though there could be some double-counting (people running more than 1 race), that is still a lot of people.

  • Assuming the US is about 330M people, 1 in 200 finished a half marathon last year
  • Of the races ran last year, 1 in 8 (~ 12%) ran a half marathon

Half MarathonWith 1,500 half marathons in 2011, there are dozen of races going on every weekend.  Looking at this calendar of half-marathons here,  there are 63 races going on this weekend (Oct 20-21).  Some of the more notable ones:

1500 Half Marathons in 2011 TableThe half marathon format is popular.  From 2004-2011, the number of half marathon runners grew by about 1 million, or a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 14.6%.

Marathon and Half Marathon Runners GraphWomen are running more than men.  So who is running these races?  Approximately 60% of the half marathon finishers are women.  So guys. . . stop watching so much sports on the TV, and put on your running shoes.  The women and showing us up.

Men Women Half Marathon GraphGet motivated and sign up for a half marathon.  Use this calendar to find a race close to your home here.   Looks like there are 55 half marathons in North Carolina, and only 50 in South Carolina annually.

If you think half-marathons are boring, consider the Tough Mudder.  This takes the brutality of a half marathon to a different level.  The length (10-12 miles) is similar to the half-marathon, but it has 25+ different military-style obstacles in your way.  It is based military courses use by the British special forces (apparently).  Click on some of the obstacle names in blue, and you can see videos and photos of this crazy stuff.

  • Electric Eel: Sliding under live wires that will give you a shock if you touch them
  • Arctic Enema: A dumpster full of ice water
  • Everest: A skateboarder’s quarter pike (slippery of course) that you have to get over
  • Boa Constrictor: Long pipes that you have to wiggle through with your arms
  • Mile of Mud: Like it sounds, a mile of waist-high mud
  • Funky Monkey: See the photo below.

Funky Monkey ObstacleCan me conventional.  Call me a wimp.  I found it hard enough to run the 13.1 miles on the smooth pavement with perfect weather.  Will pass on the tough mudder for now.

Where America leads: #1 in military spending and #1 in arms exports

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America has been the predominant military power for the last fifty years.  With the break up of the USSR in the late1980s, the US stands alone in its military spending.  Americans of my Gen-X generation, are now asking the question, “Should America Serve as the World’s Policeman?” and more cynically, “Can We Afford It?”

Clearly, the world is still a violent and messy place.  It is still a realpolitik world where geopolitical power is sadly demonstrated (as Mao so in-eloquently stated ) “from the barrel of a gun”.  There are too many failed economies, unconscionable despots, and tribal conflicts to leave people to their devices.  Unfortunately, we are a far cry from the world envisioned by Woodrow Wilson.  In many ways, the UN plays only a supporting role.

The United States has the highest military expenditures.  The US spends ~ 4.8% of GDP or $700 billion on the military annually.  To put that in perspective:

  • Since there are about 315 million Americans currently, this equates to each of us paying about $2,300 annually in military spending
  • Since there are about 7 billion people in the world, this means Americans pay about $100 annually in military expenditure for each global citizen
  • In the graph from the Economist, you can see that the US military spend is the same as the next 17 countries combined

Military Spenders GraphUnsurprisingly, China has the most soldiers. China has almost 2.3 million soldiers, which is 10x more than the Japanese.  In terms of Naval power (shown in the dark blue bars), the US, China and Russia are the only real contenders.  China recently acquired and retrofitted an aircraft carrier, but the NY Times notes here that it is only for training purposes and actually has no planes that can land on the vessel.  North Korea is also an outlier (as it often is) because it has 49 military personnel for every 1,000 people.  So sad.

Military by Country Graph

Military Industrial Complex.  President Eisenhower saw it coming 50 years ago.  He warned that a Military Industrial Complex would create an environment where the government, armed forces, and private companies share a mutual interest in maintaining a permanent military infrastructure.  Eisenhower said in his 1961 farewell address:

“We must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex.  The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists, and will persist.   We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes.  We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals so that security and liberty may prosper together.”

Global arms trade is big business.  According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), arms exports have been approximately $20-30 billion annually for the last twenty years, as shown in the graph below.   It hit a low in the 2002-2003 time frame, and now it is at a high.  SIPRI has a lot of country-level data here for download.

Arms Exports Graph

The US and Russia (ex Cold War players) are exporting the most.   Seems like the military industrial complex in both countries still have a lot of arms to sell to the rest of the world.  The US sells a lot to South Korea and Australia, while Russia sells a lot to India and China.  Interestingly, the Greeks buy a lot of arms from the Germans and the French.

Arms Exporters GraphSo, what should role of America’s military be?   In a fascinating debate on the topic of “America Should be the World’s Policeman”, six experts discussed the pros / cons of an activist US foreign policy here.  Some might consider this a politically-charged topic, and it is.  It deserves discussion.  The safety of 1.5+ million American military personnel and $700 billion in annual US military spending hinge on the outcome of the national debate.

PS: Economist article on when China may outspend the US in military spending here.

Consultant’s View on Romney’s Comment: 47% of Americans Don’t Pay Income Tax

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Taxes are a universal complaint regardless of where you live.  It is the stuff of bar conversations, news reports and Presidential debates.  It is mentioned in the bible and let’s not forget that one of the twelve disciples was a tax collector (Matthew).

Is it true 47% of Americans don’t pay income taxes?  After Mitt Romney’s comment that almost half of Americans do not pay income tax, the Economist published this helpful table to give some context.  Of the 47% of Americans who do not pay income tax. . .

  • 28% of them do pay payroll taxes (even if they don’t pay income taxes)
  • 10% are elderly
  • 7% have income of less than $20K
  • The % of Americans not paying income taxes has increased from 15% in 1985 to almost 50% currently during by Democratic and Republic administrations

47% Not Paying Income Tax

Are US taxes high compared to other countries?  As an American who recently filed his taxes (yes, I got the extension to August), I don’t like paying taxes; Don’t feel like I am getting my money’s worth – but that is a different discussion.

Looking at this Economist comparison of the effective tax rates paid by people earning the equivalent of $100K annually in different countries, the US has one of the lowest rates. . .

  • Belgium, Greece, Germany, and France have the highest effective tax rates
  • India and Brazil (both developing countries) also have high rates
  • Of the 16 countries shown, only Russia and the UAE had lower rates

Global Tax Rates

Are the wealthy in the US paying their fair share?  In his Wall Street Journal article, David Wessels provided a lot of the data for readers to make up their own mind.  In an interview, he noted that “fair share” is a completely subjective assessment.  After looking at these four charts, what do you think? .

  • #1: The top 5% have increased their share of wealth, but also increased the amount of taxes they pay.  They earn 25% of the wealth, and pay 40% of the federal taxes
  • #2: The bottom 40% earn a smaller portion of the pie, but also pay dramatically less (%) in federal taxes.  Almost nothing
  • #3: Most Americans pay less in fed taxes than they did in the early 80s (Regan era)
  • #4: Inequality (rich getting richer, poor getting poorer) is rising, but government benefits and taxes are dampening those effects.  Somewhat progressive.

Who Pays TaxesDoes everyone hate the rich? As a bit of a libertarian at heart, I believe that those who add value in the market place deserve their success and wealth.  All Americans deserve equality in opportunity (education, legal protection, access to capital), but what you do with those blessings is completely up to you.  People should be given the same inputs, not guaranteed the same outputs.

  • From this survey, the Australians, Canadians, US and the Chinese seem to agree with me.  The rich deserve their wealth
  • Greeks, Russians, and Turks are most skeptical of the rich

Public opinion on the rich

With so many governments in debt and the increase in the numbers of pensioners, the notion of raising taxes is just as unpopular in the the UK, France, Greece or Germany. More than half of the readers of this blog are not from the US.  Please leave your comments.  Do these opinion poll results about the “rich” match your feelings?

A consultant’s view of 40 Years of Olympics Data (1972-2008)

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Olympic RingsThe Olympics are a wonder.  At a macro-level, it is a family get-together of 200+ nations where all the international relations and the geopolitical clatter is replaced with sports.  It’s a rare opportunity where xenophobia, racial stereotypes, and hatred are not accepted.  At an individual level, it is hundreds of individual stories of ambition, sacrifice, and passion.

The Olympics have been around for a long time and who does not like Olympic sports stats? Looking back over the last 10 summer Olympics, a few things you notice:

There is medal inflation. . . Forty years ago, there were  600 medals awarded at the summer Olympics.  In 2008, 951 medals were awarded.  This increase is largely because of the increase in the number of events from 21 (1972) to 28 (2008).  Apparently, 2012 London does not have baseball and softball, so the number drops to 26 sports, only to go back up to 28 in the next Olympics with the addition of Golf and Rugby.

40 years of Olympic Medals

. . but it’s still damn hard to get a medal.  Yes, the number of medals went up, but so did the numbers of athletes.  Over the last forty years there have been  ~ 7,700 medals awarded and approximately 85,500 athletes.  Using a simple average, that comes to about 9% of the athletes getting medals. For the math types, that 9% is approximate because some athletes win more than 1 medal (e.g., Micheal Phelps) and some events award medals to the entire team (e.g., 1 gold medal for football, but it goes to 11+ players).  On the graph below, you can see that the 1980 and 1984 Olympics were outliers because of cold-war related boycotts.  In 1980 and 1984, there were fewer athletes, so the chances of actually winning a medal increased dramatically.

% of Olympic Medals

Lots of bronze medals: I thought that there was 1 gold, 1 silver and 1 bronze per event, but that is not what the data said.  After a friend explained why, now I know that some events like judo, taekwondo and wrestling have 2 bronzes medals.

Bronze Medals as a % of TotalMore countries are winning medals. . . In 2008, there were 86 counties that won at least 1 medal during the summer Olympics,  broader participation than ever.

Number of Countries Winning Medals. . . a lot of them are former Soviet Republics.  In 1992, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania win medals.  Then in 1996, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia and others join in. Summer Medals from Former Soviet Republics

One commenter asked: What is the US vs. USSR medal counts (including Post-Soviet Republics)?

Well, it looks like the USSR & Post-Soviet Republics are really great competitors.  Their medal counts were higher than the US in 8 of the 8 years when there were not boycotts.

US vs USSR and Post Soviet

The 80/20 Rule applies: Over the last 40 years, 129 countries have won Olympic medals.  However, 23 of those countries have captured 80% of the cumulative medals.

Summer Olympics Medals Cumulative Total by CountryMighty East Germans: The East Germans’ Olympic medal count remains the 4th highest in the list of 129 countries with medals.  This struck me as particularly impressive since the Berlin wall fell in 1989.  They won all 384 medals between 1972-1988.East and West Germany Olympics

They New York Times does great work with visualization.  This bubble chart of Olympic Medals by countries is no exception.  You can see by screenshot how big the East German bubble is in 1988.  Click on the link and enjoy this graph with a slider on it.

Olympics Medals

Source: Olympic rings photo, Flickr, spcbrass